Why the 12-Team Playoff is Still Wrong... Here's How to Fix it
The main problem with the criteria for selecting Playoff teams has not been corrected; I revisit my solution for CFB from July 2022.
Taking a look at NIL lessons from Week 10 of the 2024 CFB season; the first 12-team Playoff rankings from the committee and how they can apply to sports, business and life.
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This past historic Tuesday, the U.S. Presidential Election and the first ever Committee rankings for a new 12-team Playoff coincided. For better or for worse, there seemed to be more debate about the football, rather than the political, decisions.
That is because the 12-team Playoff has still left the core problems of the four-team CFP unresolved. Here were the core problems with the four-team CFP:
Committee members were tasked to select the four ‘BEST’ teams. They were also left to define ‘BEST’ anyway they choose to.
They did not have to follow precedents created year over year or even week to week, which made rankings fluctuate wildly.
Conference Championships were quickly devalued or ignored.
Head to head, on the field results did not matter.
No incentive to increase strength of schedule.
Mid-Majors were de facto exiled and one Power 5 conference—sometimes two— was guaranteed to be left out each year.
Then add in everything else external to CFB that has taken place in the past three years: the potential devaluing of tradition via decreased bowl participation; a greater competitive imbalance due to conference realignment; player mobility through the transfer portal driven by NIL pay-for-play deals from Collectives; and reduced university resources in the form of ‘required’ as proposed by the House settlement.
It has created an unpredictable environment in collegiate athletics where the only chance at relevancy and survival (via revenue generation) for both schools and media outlets alike has been to advocate for the biggest brands.
Naturally, all the conversation centers around the top brands—how to get them into the Playoff in order to maximize payouts. That is why conferences—like the SEC and Big Ten— are seeking guaranteed bids or why new Super Leagues are being proposed. Not to create an even playing field to crown a national champion, but to tip the scales in their favor to recoup the most dollars.
By my count, there are 37 teams who are competing for a Playoff bid—even if their paths to qualifying will vary. However, you won’t hear that in the national media or from the Committee.
Here were the biggest errors of the first release of the Playoff rankings:
No. 25 Army and No. 21 Washington State were buried at the end of the rankings
Three two-loss SEC teams were ranked above one-loss Iowa State and Pitt and clustered as close as possible to the No. 12 line.
SMU was the first team out despite being perfect in ACC play; beating Duke & Louisville on the road; splitting games with Big 12 foes (only loss to undefeated BYU); and manhandling Pitt by 23 points.
Big brands No. 11 Alabama and No. 10 Notre Dame were ranked above No. 12 Boise State. The Tide have two losses.
Indiana and BYU sit unblemished but behind three SEC teams and two Big Ten teams all who have one loss.
Once again, the committee is manipulating their definition of ‘BEST’ in order to help the big brands and the big conferences in order to produce big profit.
In this new era of CFB, the details will matter. The difference between a home or away game or having the benefit of a playoff bye cannot be understated.
By warping the definition of ‘BEST’ we are still experiencing the same tired, old problems of brand bias; eye test love affairs; ignoring good faith scheduling and neglecting smaller schools.
So how is the best solution for CFB created that solves all of the core issues? I am not one to complain about something being broken without a solution.
Here notes of my own from July 2022 to align conference strength; provide equal opportunity to compete for a title and maintain CFB tradition:
Celebrate Every Victory
Focusing back to the NIL lessons that happened last week: both South Carolina and Baylor fans rushed the field after big—albeit different— program victories.
The Gamecocks used the energy of a brilliant stadium crowd to upset No. 10 Texas A&M in a classic let down game for the Aggies.
Meanwhile, Baylor beat their arch rival, yet unranked, TCU with a field goal as time expired. It was the Bears’ first win over the Horned Frogs since 2019, and gave the Baylor fanbase a reason to believe again.
The major takeaway is to celebrate all your victories in life— big or small.
It could be a top-ten win or win over the next door rival. It could be a million dollar deal or a hundred dollar deal. It could be as simple as setting up a meeting with that hard to get ahold of person.
Because there are no guarantees. In fact six ranked teams lost last Saturday (as a result really keeping the path to the Playoff wide open), and only one was to another ranked team.
Army has never trailed this season, but one misstep and they will instantly be forgotten.
It’s your journey; it’s your hard work; it’s your victory.
Celebrate the success when it comes.